Skip to main content

Why Indian Companies Are Smart to be "Short-Sighted" and "Risk Averse"

Extracts from the brilliant article by Dr. Ajay Shah:

Let us start with short-sightedness. The best firms in India are able to borrow five--year money at around 13%. At 13%, a rupee five years from now is worth 54 paisa today. A rupee ten years out is worth 29 paisa today, and a rupee twenty years out is worth 9 paisa today. In contrast, a rupee next year is worth 88 paisa today. With this kind of discounting, it is not surprising that projects that yield returns next year (i.e. 88 paisa today for each rupee of profit) are very attractive when compared with projects that yield returns 10 years from now (i.e. 29 paisa today for each rupee of profit). This difference -- between 88 and 29 paisa -- is striking. In a world with high interest rates, being short-sighted is rational.

...What about risk, and the willingness to undertake risky projects? Modern finance teaches us that when firms are able to issue equity into liquid and efficient capital markets, the risk premium that they face is driven by the `beta' of the company's stock against the index. The long run historical rate of return on Nifty is around 21%: this is also the long run historical cost of capital that the typical firm faces. A firm that has a beta of 1 against Nifty has to plan on giving a return to shareholders of around 20%. If the future is discounted at the rate of 20% per year, it makes sense to look for cashflows in one or two years. It also makes sense to look for less risky (i.e. low beta) projects. In a world with a high cost of capital, short-sightedness and a lack of venturesomeness are rational outcomes.

...If you believe that this economic reasoning explains the bulk of the short-sightedness that afflicts India's firms and managers, then there is an extremely optimistic implication: it is not very difficult to change this behaviour. If we make a transition into an environment with low inflation, low interest rates, and low risk premia, then that would give us a whole new breed of risk-taking, far-sighted firms and managers. The management gurus would even write books about the new generation of Indian managers who have developed a `new culture' of doing risky, far-sighted projects.

Dr. Shah also highlights how the solution to this "cultural problem" we Indian entrepreneurs have can be achieved through through a combination of financial sector reforms, pension reforms, fiscal strengthening and capital account convertibility.

Arun Natarajan is the Founder & CEO of Venture Intelligence, the leading provider of data and analysis on private company transactions, valuations and financials in India. Click Here to learn about Venture Intelligence products that help entrepreneurs Reach Out to Investors, Research Competition, Learn from Experienced Entrepreneurs and Interact with Peers. Includes the Free Deal Digest Weekly Newsletter: India's First & Most Exhaustive Transactions Newsletter.

Popular posts from this blog

How I Raised Funding - Priyanka Agarwal, Wishberry

You have to be confident and shameless while crowdfunding. Priyanka Agarwal, Wishberry shares on how to succeed in crowd funding with Venture Intelligence in this  interview. Priyanka also candidly shares how the team built Wishberry, raised funding from top angel investors like Rajan Anandan, on pivoting, and difficulties in raising capital for entrepreneurs operating in niche spaces not chased by VCs. Q: What does Wishberry do?Priyanka Agarwal: In its latest avatar, Wishberry has pivoted into crowd financing of low budget films (INR 1-5 Cr). We are essentially trying to create an internet platform for investment opportunities for HNIs in films including Marathi, Tamil, Kannada, or films targeting the global diaspora.

L-R: Co-founders Anshulika Dubey & Priyanka Agarwal, Wishberry Given that you are building a marketplace, how did Wishberry solve the Chicken and Egg problem? Beyond the “all or nothing” model what did Wishberry do to pull in more artistes and investors? First, you…

Interview with One97's Vijay Shekhar Sharma

Venture Intelligence featured an interview with Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Founder & Managing Director of One97 Communications as part of the July issue of the US-IVCA / Venture IntelligenceIndia VC report. One97 is one of the pioneering start-ups in the Indian Mobile VAS space and recently raised its first round of funding led by SAIF Partners.

Some extracts from the interview:

VI: How were you funding the company until now?
VSS: We were the first company to put a revenue sharing model in place with operators. That gave us recurring revenue and made the company cash positive.

VI: What were your challenges in fund raising?
VSS: Two challenges: first, deciding on the network the fund could provide and second, the kind of size commitment they can make for future investments. A third factor was the comfort with the VC: what kind of team it was, the chemistry between team members, the kind of person who will come onto our board. The VC on the board becomes your everyday business partner.

V…

How doing Outsized Partnerships led Karadi down the Wrong Path

Business Line has a fascinating account of the travails faced by Chennai-based children's entertainment and education brand, Karadi Tales, in its search for strategic / financial partners. Viswanath has been fire-fighting to keep afloat Karadi Tales (now a unit of Karadi Path), the company he and his wife Shobha founded in 1996. A distribution agreement with Times Music had landed them in court. And the merger with ACK Media (publishers of Amar Chitra Katha) and subsequent acquisition by Kishore Biyani’s Future Ventures didn’t pan out as expected.  ...The partnership (with Times Music) turned sour when there was a change in leadership at Times Music...When Viswanath cited the exit clause and asked for the agreement to be nullified, his partner refused to oblige and instead took him to court, which issued a stay order. Viswanath and his team, despite founding Karadi Tales, could no longer use the brand. “It took us two years to get out of the case,” says Viswanath, who also had to fa…